自公過半数割れ 官僚らは戦々恐々［2024.10.28］

27日に投開票が行われた衆院選で、自民・公明両党の連立与党は、民主党に政権が交代した平成21年以来、15年ぶりとなる過半数割れとなり、不安定な政権運営を強いられる見通しとなった。東京・霞が関の官僚らからは、政権運営の行方を冷静に受け止める一方で、与党内で決めてきた法案策定のプロセスの変化を懸念する声が上がった。

■司令塔不明の恐れ

「自公だけでは決められなくなった」。文部科学省幹部からは、ため息も漏れる。幹部の頭によぎるのは、大規模な政策転換を強いられ、混乱が生じた、21年の民主党への政権交代だ。幹部は「あの時とは違うだろうが、政策によっては、どの党の誰が司令塔になるのか分からなくなる恐れもある」と、子育て支援策などの対応を不安視する。

厚生労働省のある幹部は「自公のみの政権が長かったので、意思決定のプロセスは少しずつ変わるのでは」としつつも「影響が出るかは見通せない」と動向を注視する。

石破茂首相が最優先政策に掲げる「防災庁」設置という最重要課題を抱える内閣府防災部門。ある幹部も「衆参がねじれることがあれば10年以上ぶり。うまく対応できるだろうか」と訴える。

能登半島地震の復旧を含め、防災行政の強化については野党側もおおむね賛同しているが、「来年7月の参院選に向けて政権の成果にさせまいとする野党側との間で〝政争の具〟にならないと良いのだが…」とも話す。

■エネ政策に大きな影響も

一方、石破氏が強みを持つ防衛政策では当面、国会での目立った懸案はない。防衛省幹部は「直ちに影響はないが、有事の際には国会の理解が欠かせない。動向に注意していきたい」と語る。

転換期を迎えるエネルギー施策を進める資源エネルギー庁幹部も動向を見守る。

日本のエネルギー政策は、岸田文雄政権下で脱原発から180度大転換し「原発回帰」にかじを切った。29日には東北電力女川原発2号機（宮城県）が再稼働し、12月には中国電力島根原発2号機（島根県）の再稼働も予定されている。

幹部は「主要各党は今後の電力需要拡大を見据え、原発容認の立場だった。今の政策が大きく変わることはないだろう」と前置きした上で「政権の枠組みがどうなるのか。政局を注視しつつ、年度内にまとめるエネルギー基本計画の策定を進めたい」と話す。
首都圏に電力を供給する東京電力柏崎刈羽原発（新潟県）は、再稼働に向けて地元同意のハードルが残る。東電関係者は「岸田政権は国が前面に立ち、再稼働を後押しするスタンスだった。少数与党になればこれまでとは違った対応になるかもしれない」と本音を漏らした。

■英訳　

In the House of Representatives election held on the 27th, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito fell below a majority for the first time in 15 years since the Democratic Party of Japan took power in 2009, suggesting the coalition may face challenges in stable governance. Bureaucrats in Tokyo’s Kasumigaseki government district, while calmly accepting the change, expressed concerns over the anticipated shift in the process of drafting legislation, which has traditionally been managed within the ruling parties.

Concerns Over Lack of Clear Leadership

“It can no longer be decided by the LDP and Komeito alone,” sighed a senior official from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. The official recalls the confusion that ensued with the major policy shift when power transitioned to the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009. “It may be different this time, but depending on the policy, there is a risk of not knowing who within which party will take charge,” the official said, expressing concern over policies such as childcare support.

An official from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare commented, “With the LDP-Komeito government being in power for so long, the decision-making process is likely to shift gradually,” adding, however, that “it’s still unclear what impact it may have,” while keeping an eye on developments.

The Cabinet Office’s disaster prevention department, which has prioritized the establishment of a “Disaster Management Agency”—the top priority of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba—also voiced concerns. “If there’s a split between the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, it would be the first time in over a decade. Will we be able to handle it well?” questioned a senior official.

While the opposition parties generally support strengthening disaster response administration, including recovery efforts for the Noto Peninsula earthquake, one official expressed hope that disaster preparedness would not become a “political weapon” as opposition parties might try to block any achievements ahead of the July Upper House election next year.

Potential Impact on Energy Policy

In the area of defense, where Ishiba holds significant expertise, there are no immediate issues likely to draw attention in the Diet. A senior official from the Ministry of Defense remarked, “While there’s no immediate effect, parliamentary understanding will be crucial in times of crisis. We’ll need to keep a close watch on developments.”

A senior official from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, overseeing Japan’s transitioning energy policy, also expressed cautious monitoring.

Under the Kishida administration, Japan’s energy policy underwent a major shift, pivoting from phasing out nuclear energy to embracing it once more. On the 29th, Tohoku Electric Power’s Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2 (Miyagi Prefecture) resumed operations, with Chugoku Electric Power’s Shimane Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2 (Shimane Prefecture) scheduled to restart in December.

The official noted, “The major political parties have generally been in favor of nuclear energy, given the anticipated increase in electricity demand. I don’t think the current policy will change significantly,” adding, “We will monitor how the framework of the ruling coalition shapes up and proceed with drafting the Basic Energy Plan by the end of the fiscal year.”

However, in terms of local challenges, TEPCO’s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant (Niigata Prefecture), which supplies electricity to the Tokyo metropolitan area, still requires local approval to restart. A TEPCO representative confided, “The Kishida administration was proactive in supporting restarts, but if we become a minority government, the approach may need to change.”

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